Top Expert: East Asia Thumbs Nose at Uncle Sam, North/South Start Successful Negotiations
And now back to our main topic: The first direct negotiations between North and South Korea. We are in direct communication with a Russian diplomat, Orientalist, and RAS member — Georgy Toloraya.
- Greetings, Mr. Toloraya. Do you consider today's negotiations to be a temporary thaw? Is it a truce for the time of the upcoming Olympics in PyeongChang? Or, is it the beginning of a true dialogue?
- Well, anything's possible. I really hope the dialogue will continue after the Olympics. But anyway, it's a clever and far-sighted step from Kim Jong Un, the North Korean leader. And I'm happy that South Korea quickly replied and agreed to negotiate. Thus, Koreans took the fate of their peninsula into their own hands.
Right now, the US threat is hanging in the air. Both Koreas have chosen a dialogue, a diplomatic solution that Russia has been encouraging. I hope it's not just a temporary truce for the time of the Olympics and that the open lines of communication between their militaries will help to establish cooperation between the North and the South."
- The fact that Kim Jong Un initiated the negotiations was absolutely unexpected. Is it the result of the new sanctions of the UN Security Council?
- No, it's not the result of the sanctions but a smart and well-calculated move. Kim Jong Un has basically driven a wedge between the US and South Korea, weakening the US' influence, and weakening China's influence on what happens on the peninsula. In other words, he won the round by making this simple yet dramatic offer. I don't know how long he's been planning it but the execution was perfect. The Koreans have done a good job.
- Right now, the sides are discussing only the Olympics and not total reconciliation. When and under what conditions can we speak about establishing a broad dialogue and what factors will help it?
- You know, the level of the first round of negotiations is the level of the top managers of inter-Korean relations, it's the level of the first diplomats, and they can discuss any agenda they want. The only higher level is a summit. That's why I think they won't just be discussing the Olympics. In this format, they can discuss any issues, including economic cooperation, their military issues, and so on and so forth.
- Where do the North Koreans flee to these days? Is it the South or China? And do North Koreans still have special marks in their passports that say "special," "general," and "basic", depending on their background?
- An unexpected question. Yes, not every North Korean is happy with their economic situation, and many are in trouble with the authorities. So, they flee to neighbor lands, the way some Russian oligarchs do. Of course, it's easier to flee to China. Many were disappointed when they tried to flee to South Korea because 80% of the refugees from the North can't find a job in South Korea. It sounds ridiculous, but some of them even return. South Korea is no longer a heaven on earth for North Korean refugees the way it was, say, 15-20 years ago.
Regarding the so-called "Songbun" system, which monitors information about one's ancestors and affiliations with certain clans, it still remains. It influences a person's opportunities and employment. But the current situation in North Korea is different. Private business is on the rise. In this case it's not so important whether your granddad was an anti-Japanese guerrilla or the abettor of imperialism. The things that influence your business are your abilities to bribe and to make deals. And now even Koreans of low origin can reach the middle class or even the upper one.
- And finally, Mr. Toloraya, what do you think: What role can the US, China, Japan, and Russia play in these negotiations?
- I believe the US must be disappointed because their lengthy campaign aimed to put pressure on North Korea and to impose new sanctions has failed. Currently, South Korea is suggesting lifting some sanctions for the time of the Olympics. It's enough to make one exception for further exceptions to follow. At least there is an opportunity. Basically, North Korea united the four players, I mean North Korea, South Korea, China, and Russia, against the US and its allies, weakening the US' positions. I don't think Washington is happy about it despite their statements in support of the dialogue, and claims that they have always wanted the situation to develop like that.
- Thank you for your commentary.
We've just spoken with the director of the Asian Strategy Center of Russia of the RAS Institute of Economy — Georgy Toloraya.