The West is Cracking at the Seams! Is Trump Going to Pull a Yeltsin and Break Up the EUSSR?
Karen Shakhnazarov, director, People's Artist of Russia: I'm impressed by Nikolai's passion. It's good. I'd like to say the following: I've recently read quite a curious article in a serious newspaper The Financial Times, if I remember correctly. They openly wrote something that we (and I) used to say. They claim the West is experiencing the same crisis that Eastern Europe did in 1989 and 1990. I also read a curious New York Times article. They wrote that a US president usually leaves a message, a letter, to their successor. They recalled the letter Obama wrote to Trump. But what if Putin wrote such letter to Trump? They list all of the possible points and they happen to line up with Trump's policies. A war with China, trade wars with Europe — the whole spectrum.
— There would be no sanctions against Russia though, right?
— If that's what's required to make our government work, they would be there.
— Indeed, sanctions weren't listed. But I already stated my point when Trump became the new president. I said: Trump will initiate a process similar to our perestroika. This is what's going on. Trump is Gorbachev and Yeltsin combined, although he acts more like the latter. This process makes the West weaker. The whole Western media is writing about it. Niall Ferguson is writing the book "The End of the West". It can't be otherwise.
— I'm interested in hearing a single opinion.
— There's no…
— Name one person who says it'll make the West stronger.
Nikolai Zlobin, political expert: That's not what we're talking about. It's not about the West growing stronger.
Karen Shakhnazarov: Nikolai, let me finish. I'd like to not turn this into an argument. Look, you — the Westernizers — have always been sensitive about that. I understand why: It feels like we're talking about the West being ultimately doomed. It's not. That's not what we're talking about. Europe and America will remain and God send them prosperity. We're talking about their imperial significance in the world gradually disappearing. And from here we get the idea you've just mentioned: In the 1990's, the world didn't accept reform. What was it? The collapsed USSR — Russia — proposed a new model to the world. And what response did they get? The West was at the peak of its power and didn't want to change. The West wanted to expand. I believe that the EU in its current form is a meaningless organization from an economic point of view. This organization was created to move toward Russia. It is no coincidence that in order to join the EU, a country must join the NATO. That was the mission of the EU. Today, Western civilization... We always call it "Western" but it's actually Roman-Germanic civilization. That's what the West is. We call it "Europe" but we're also a part of Europe. But we belong to Eastern Europe, and they belong to the Roman-Germanic civilization. And they are experiencing a crisis. And naturally it's starts to all fall apart. There's a simple reason for that: it's a historic necessity. After the USSR collapsed, this monster kept moving by inertia. It thought it was going to devour everything. But life doesn't work like that: Eventually, you run out of resources.
Why is Trump acting like that? Because America doesn't have enough resources. Why does he demand that Europe pay for its defense? Because America can't be the only one paying for it. On the other hand, Europe can be understood as well. They say: "Look, you wanted to pay for our defense. You wanted to dominate us, wanted us to obey you. You basically wanted to strip us of our sovereignty. Then why are we supposed to buy your defense? In this case, we'd better buy our own defense." It's clear that this process is inevitable. And there's nothing…
Nikolai Zlobin: I wouldn't say it's inevitable.
— And furthermore, it will continue. I believe we'll witness the greatest and most interesting changes. We might live long enough to see the time when the US and its military leave Europe. It's possible that there will be a period when Germany... (I've already mentioned this) Germany-Russia-China is an axis that could form, but is hardly imaginable today. America's nightmare.
— Well put. What will our German friends say?
Alexander Sosnovsky, Chief Editor of "World Economy" (Germany): Vladimir, you always talk about Germany as if it wasn't Germany, but some other nation. But I'd like to comment on what my esteemed colleague said. He said that Europe will outlive Trump. But here's another idea: Europe might not survive Trump. Which is a different point of view. You also spoke about the powers of light and darkness. Well, today we have representatives of both America and Germany here. He's got dark pants and light jacket while I'm wearing a dark jacket and light pants.
— So…
— What's the meaning of that? That means... That means they are experiencing bright times while we are experiencing dark times. These dark times have been brought by Trump. In Germany, we say that because of Trump's behavior, there's only one rule, and it goes like this: There are no rules.
Karen Shakhnazarov: You see, I'm talking about the possible axis of Germany, Russia, and China. My opinion is not based on my personal attachments. People and nations form alliances based on their interests rather than personal attachments. Napoleon used to say: "Search for interested parties." Germany is interested in resources and markets. China needs resources and technologies. And Russia needs both technologies and markets to sell resources. It's basically the most probable scenario. I didn't come up with that, the Western media's been discussing that for a while. It's a possible, and moreover, an obvious scenario. We make our judgments based on the situation of the last 50 years we've lived through. But our world is constantly changing in remarkable ways. I feel that this will be the route the world is going to take.
I respect you, Sergey. Out of all the liberals, I consider you to be the deepest thinker. Why do I love the Russian pro-West liberals? Because the Russian liberals are all Westernizers. They are basically Westernizers. They create... For them, the West is a holy grail, not a political structure. It's something they believe in. I believe it's a mistake — you can't believe in the West or the East, only in God. So, what's so interesting about the Russian liberals? They clearly show you where the wind blows without mentioning it. And it's clear where the wind blows, at least for me. We were talking about the West, America, and the whole Western world growing weak. They'll start flirting with Russia. And it has nothing to do with the sanctions. They might even cancel the sanctions. God forbid that! I believe the sanctions haven't yet fulfilled their purpose. As always, we're too slow and too bureaucratic. But they are starting to work, helping us restore our industry and agriculture. I believe they should remain intact as long as possible. The tide is turning. Russia must understand what to do in this situation. We must give it to the West, they earned a lot from our Perestroika. A lot. They earned trillions of dollars, immense influence, and completely exploited it.
So I believe Russia must analyze what place it should occupy in the new world. And how to benefit from the crisis phase that the Western world has entered. Judging from our experience, this transitional Perestroika-like phase won't last long. As we can judge from our own experience. Our Perestroika basically ended with our country getting back on track. In 20-30 years, the West can also begin to rise. We must be ready for that. We must thoroughly analyze the situation. But the main thing is not to sell our interests too cheaply as Russia used to do. By the way, Russia always crashed when it was run by Westernizers. I'll remind you that Nikolai II was a Westernizer. This was one of the reasons for his actions.
— We will now take a break. It seems that the has government heard you. It has cut its investments in US securities by at least half. But I think that it is necessary to stop investing altogether. It seems strange. They impose sanctions on us and we invest money in them. It seems illogical. I saw a smile on Nikolai's face when we were speaking about the sanctions being good. When there were no sanctions there were no new technologies in Russia. Do not confuse the possibility of buying an iPhone with technologies that allow us to produce it.
— I agree with you. I was told that Trump represents the national interests of America. This is the crux of the problem. America is not a nation-state, but a world empire. And when you become its leader…
— There is a similarity with Yeltsin and Stankevich who advocated for independence in the 1990s. The most shameful chapter of our history. The shameful chapter about our sovereignty.
— I understand Trump's opponents in America. Their idea is that he must take care of the interests of the empire but the interests of the empire differ from national interests. In America, there is a split in society, some do not want to be an empire. Some say that if he destroys that, he will destroy America. The same thing happened with the USSR. If you destroy an empire then you destroy your country too. How does he do it?: "I want to bring manufacturing back to the United States. I want them to pay for my defense." If you want us to pay, we don't need you. Why do we need you then? Withdraw your troops. He destroys the alliance with Europe and with China. In Korea, he wins as a leader, but loses as the head of the American empire. The American empire was defeated in Korea. It did not achieve anything, and a small country actually confirmed its nuclear status. Those conversations meant nothing.
So the idea of this whole... This is the question of the difference between globalization, the global world in which the global financial oligarchy rules because finance has already become global and the nation-states which Trump represents. It's happening in America because it has become the first world empire in the history of mankind. There was no such empire before. This conflict is destroying the Western world today. Trump did that not because he had some strange ideas like Boris Yeltsin, but because of his personal interest. He always sees his own interests which his voters provide him with. Russia has a good chance to take advantage of the situation. Unfortunately, we've always let these chances slip.