The Stage Has Been Set: World-Changing Trump-Putin Summit Confirmed for Helsinki in Ten Days’ Time
On Wednesday president Putin received the US National Security Advisor in the Kremlin. He arrived in Russia on a mission to finally agree on the place and time of the Russian-American summit. Which he accomplished. On Thursday the Kremlin and the White House simultaneously announced that the first full-scale summit between the Russian and American leaders since the election of Trump would take place in Helsinki, the Finnish capital, on July 16th. This is the technical result of Bolton's visit. The talks between Sergei Lavrov and his American counterpart Mike Pompeo will be held to prepare the meeting itself. They will try to make it as substantial as possible because Putin and Trump have had a couple of meetings, but they all were perfunctory, on the margins of multilateral events, impromptu, without any commitments. Unlike this time, where they'll meet in a predetermined place at a predetermined time. A very different kind of affair.
But why is it Bolton whom Trump chose for such a principled mission to the Kremlin to finalize the details of the meeting and probe a possible agenda for the talks? That's a topic rich for discussion. Were it up to Bolton, he would not have promoted any meetings or agreements. This politician's walrus mustache is a symbol of the most "hawkish" policies in the American corridors of power. But Trump says that he has chemistry with Bolton. Bolton's mustache is loved by cartoonists of all sorts of countries. His image is so refined that it has become a classic of the genre. This is how Bolton was portrayed when he was the American representative to the United Nations. Here he is, a diplomat and negotiator, shooting from the hip. And here he, presented as a hawk, is whispering to Trump. And now he is portrayed as Baron Munchausen riding a missile instead of a cannonball, but the comparison is clear. And this is a recipe of appeasement with North Korea and Iran by chef Bolton, saying: "We begin with large mushrooms".
Indeed, back in February, The Wall Street Journal featured an article by Bolton justifying a pre-emptive nuclear strike against North Korea. In late August, Bolton wrote on the website of The Hill: "Talking to North Korea is worse than a mere waste of time." Trump didn't follow Bolton's advice and met with Kim Jong-un in Singapore. Bolton also urged to bomb Iran. His article in The New York Times was headlined as follows: “To Stop Iranian Bomb, Bomb Iran.” Trump didn't agree and isn't ready to bomb Iran yet. Bolton stands for tougher sanctions against Russia and any agreements stick in his throat. It's even worse as Bolton inherently despises international law and even considers it to be a danger, which he's been bluntly saying for a long time.
John Bolton: "It is a big mistake for us to grant any validity to international law even when it may seem in our short-term interest to do so — because, in the long term, only those who want to constrain the United States rely on international law".
Although this revelation was made long ago, Bolton obviously hasn't changed since. Bolton generally doesn't change. It's not his strong point. Instead, he can obey. So he obeyed President Reagan, working in his team, as well as George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush when he worked for them. So he obeys Trump now, who, in a most sophisticated way worth the Society of Jesus, makes Bolton convey to Putin the final consent to the negotiations. On the one hand, by doing so, Trump protects himself against those in Washington who oppose rapprochement with Russia. It even seems that Bolton himself is now a truce envoy to Moscow. On the other hand, Trump is showing who's boss in Washington. It's Trump. Although investigations into Trump's ties with Russia put off his full-scale talks with Putin, it was only temporary.
Welcoming Bolton in the Kremlin, Putin began with a sincere greeting: "Mr. Bolton, colleagues, I warmly welcome you to Moscow".
He proceeded with explaining once again why our relations with America are so bad. Moscow has nothing to do with this.
President Putin: "To begin, I regretfully have to point out that Russian-US relations are not at their best. I have mentioned this publicly more than once, and I want to say it again at this meeting as well. I believe a large part of it is because of the bitter domestic political fight in the US. But your visit here to Moscow inspires hope that we will be able to take first steps to restore full-fledged relations between our states. Russia never sought confrontation".
Doesn't Putin know who Bolton is when he says that his visit "inspires hope"? Yes, he does. He knows very well who Bolton is. But it's not anything personal. And, perhaps, specifically for such people as Bolton, Putin clarifies the principles on which it is possible to build relations with Russia.
President Putin: "I hope that today we will be able to talk about what we can do from both sides in order to restore full-fledged relations based on equality and respect for each other’s interests".
Here, every single word matters. "Relations based on equality and respect for each other’s interests". Of course, those words weren't music to Bolton's ears, but he still found the nerve to respond with well-oiled civilities and proceed to the talks. The Russian side was also represented by foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov, Foreign Minister Lavrov, and Defense Minister Shoigu. The US side was represented by Mr. Huntsman, the US ambassador to Moscow. They talked for two hours. They exchanged possible ideas, while Putin shared with Bolton "some thoughts" for the talks with Trump, the Kremlin spokesperson reported. Discussion points ranged from bilateral relations and Crimea, to Iran and Ukraine; and Syria, of course; and probably oil and gas.
Bolton said that sanctions against Russia were to remain in place. They were also unlikely to drop tariffs which hindering free trade; and security in the broadest sense, from arms control to "Russian hackers". Come to think of it, only two hours for all of this is very short. After a long break in weeding, the lawn of Russia-US relations has run so wild that it's hard to break through tall weeds. Now every Tom, Dick, and Harry from exotic animals to sticky hoppers are grazing on it. It has sunk to unsanitary conditions. Will the leaders of Russia and the US be able to clean this all of up at the upcoming summit? That's unlikely, since the summit in Helsinki will last for only one day. But it's important to start somewhere. The media is wondering what will dominate the agenda. But it is important to understand that the window of opportunity has just appeared.
Russia, conscious of its role in ensuring global security, needs agreements with America. In the light of the upcoming Congressional elections, Trump badly needs an eye-catching deal with Russia. "Deal" is Trump's favorite word. But what is a "deal"? What does it imply? Is it when Trump says someone something, and they all rush to do what he says? This is definitely not an option for Putin. The president of Russia has a completely different vision. For example, Putin recently explained the basics international relations to an American journalist. When she expressed her indignation with "Russian hackers," Putin answered in a most straightforward way.
President Putin: "We propose official talks, but you refuse. What do you want? For us to launch an investigation, just because Congress said so? Let's sit down, sign an agreement on working in cyberspace, and comply with it. There is no other way to conduct international affairs".
It was NBC anchor Megyn Kelly. When the blonde still didn't understand anything, and kept repeating the question, hoping to, as she put it, "to reach deeper layers," Mr. Putin kept lecturing her, without hesitating to repeat.
President Putin: "For the third or fourth time, I repeat that we are ready to sign a corresponding agreement with the United States. You still refuse. Let's sit come to the negotiating table, emphasize what we consider important, sign a document, and comply with it with proper verification".
That's the pattern Putin is actually committed to: the conclusion of agreements based on equality. The question is, how much does Trump like this pattern? That's the first. Secondly, it's a matter of America's negotiability now. How much does the US respect agreements reached? So far Trump hasn't cared about international documents, which, according to him, hog-tie the United States.
But there is still a clue. Trump proclaimed the principle of peace through strength. Excellent! Putin is ready for this too; for a world order based on military balance. Let it be, since nothing else works.
But why Helsinki? Earlier Trump was said to have invited Putin to the White House. Apparently, Putin refused. It is more convenient for Putin to meet Trump on neutral territory. At least for now, to start rebuilding the relations. We've seen Trump receive Japan's prime minister, Shinzo Abe, in America, when he nearly pulled out his limb; French President Macron, when Trump flicked off dandruff off his shoulder; and German Chancellor Merkel, who he didn't shake hands with when photographed. Apparently, both Putin and Trump will feel better on neutral territory, in the chilly country closer to the north polar region. Moreover, the daylight is longer there.