A New Chapter in European-Russian Relations? Did Trump’s Sanctions Force a Realignment?

"The two of you exchange folders. Then, you take the French folder you gave to the Russians".

A conveyer of billion-worth agreements and political negotiations. The President of France spent two days in St. Petersburg. One can literally stumble upon an important political figure on the sidelines of the Forum. Here, we see Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, heading to a meeting.

"I like Russia".

The head of the International Monetary Fund is walking around the halls.

 

Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of IMF: "The French Hall. My countrymen are here but they are all busy".

The head of the Boeing Corporation is almost flying to another meeting. The American delegation was the largest one present. Investors from China and the Middle East are everywhere.

The whole world economy is represented in St. Petersburg concludes an American Bloomberg reporter:

"I think the coming together is a tribute to Vladimir Putin's enthusiasm. and his power of persuasion. It also might be a sign that Donald Trump has a unique ability to call people together... ...without him. Do you have any ideas on how to work with President Trump? Because you have something to do with his election campaign and you see how it ended up?"

Vladimir Putin: "Trying to provoke me? I had nothing to do with Mr. Trump's election campaign. But we certainly can't be satisfied by the nature of the Russian-American relations. We are ready to start a dialogue. Mr. Trump proposed to hold a separate meeting but something seems to be in the way so far. Many issues arise. But we are ready to engage in a substantial dialogue. I believe it's long overdue".

Putin points out that the main rule of our world seems to be breaking all rules. It might lead to a large-scale systematic crisis we haven't faced in a long time.

Europe can't ignore it anymore. They loved their anti-Russian sanctions of the past years and were bewildered when they realized they were too now threatened by the US sanctions due to their reluctance in terminating the Iranian deal. President Macron seems to be confused when reminded of how France was trying to convince Trump not to quit the Climate Deal, not to terminate the nuclear deal with Iran, and not to start trade wars. Everything was in vain.

- You tried to persuade him but your soft approach failed. Maybe you need a tougher one?

Emmanuel Macron, President of France: "I tried, I've been constantly working on it but President Trump lost its battle at the international level. Nobody followed him. But we have our friendship and our security commitments".

Vladimir Putin: "Emmanuel mentioned their bilateral commitments with the US. Europe depends on the US in terms of security. Don't worry, we can help you. We can provide security. We'll do everything we can to prevent any new threats".

Emmanuel Macron: "I'd like to reassure Vladimir that I'm not afraid because France has an army that is capable of defending its country on its own".

Vladimir Putin: "Too bad. There's no reason to be afraid. You've got your experience to learn from. Look, we've been buzzing around Iran. But there were cases when the US imposed sanctions against the European economic operators. 9 billion, I believe. BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank were all punished for violating the unilateral sanctions. So what did they do? They obeyed and paid. Every four years, the US elects a new president. If signed international laws are reviewed every four years how can we talk about distant future planning? That won't do. Zero efficiency. It creates an atmosphere of stress and distrust".

Eleven years ago, in his Munich speech, Putin described the possible consequences of one superpower dictating its rules to the world.

Vladimir Putin: "And here come the blossoms. Feel free to pick them".

Europe doesn’t seem to like the bouquet. How would you otherwise explain that in two weeks, Russia first welcomed Merkel and now the sympathetic Macron?

"The "neither-nor" policy is back. Macron doesn't seem to be willing to pick a side: neither Russia nor the US. That's why during his visit to St. Petersburg, he was as sympathetic to Putin as to Trump".

Russia and France didn't become friends in just two days but their actions show their will to start a new chapter. An official visit doesn't imply a president should come with his wife. But Emmanuel Macron came to St. Petersburg with Brigitte. And such signs were aplenty. Macron decided to visit Piskaryovskoye Graveyard to honor the victims of the Leningrad Blockade. He also visited Mariinsky Theater that held a Petipa Anniversary Concert met Natalia Solzhenitsyna and talked to Russian and French fencers, together with Putin.

"Our coach is French. We are bonded and we hope it remains like that".

Vladimir Putin: "Nice. It's a good way to begin improving our relations".

The fact that Macron prepared for his visit and wasn't afraid to show it was obvious. He quoted Tolstoy and Pushkin, reminded the French kids grew up reading Petya and the Wolf, while the Russian — the Three Musketeers. His meeting with Putin lasted two hours longer than planned.

The balcony of the Konstantinovsky Palace where Putin and Macron held their meeting. They finished late at 10:30 p.m. The White Nights season is beginning in St. Petersburg and the French President had a chance to admire its beauty.

Macron publicly acknowledged Russia to be one of the global leaders. Later, in his interview to the French TV, he explained his approach to Moscow.

Emmanuel Macron: "The strategic approach implies that Russia must be connected to Europe. Russia is a European country".

During the Forum, he visited multiple sessions as if the Russian isolation was a myth and even spoke about investing in Russia.

Emmanuel Macron: "We are the second largest direct investor, Germany is the first. The times are getting better. It motivates us to pursue the first place".

Vladimir Putin: "I'm sorry to disappoint Emmanuel but Germany is not our top-investor. It's been China for a long time both in terms of investments and trade. How much did Fortum invest? One Finnish company invested about 6 billion. A single Finnish company! While the whole of France invested 15. How can that be okay? Really though".

At the Forum, Russian and French nuclear industrialists signed a $7 billion contract taking their cooperation to the strategic level. The oil-giant Total signed another big contract with the Russian Novatek.

Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of Total: "Our only opportunity to overcome difficulties is dialogue. This Forum is an example. Signing a new contract is crucially important. After bilateral investments, politicians will follow us".

Russian and French Foreign Ministers are arranging a new meeting.

"I'll check my schedule".

European political colossus Gerhard Schröder is eager to cooperate with Russia. He sharply criticizes the US for its clear desire to disrupt the Nord Stream 2 for its own profit ignoring the interests of others.

Alexander Novak, Minister of Energy: "Our European colleagues' opinion is quite important because it's a commercial project. We hope they'll act like businessmen, not politicians".

The European colleagues are actually interested. Here's the head of a European company that's already engaged in the Nord Stream 2 exchanging business cards with Novak.

Claudio Descalzi, CEO of Eni: "Russia's become crucial to our energy security. We must have good relations with Russia. It's a must".

"I can only say hi".

The head of Rosneft is in a hurry: he's signing one paper after another. There's a crowd of large-scale businessmen at his stand.

- Didier and Mr. Kafafe?

- Yes?

- Kafafe's here.

- Didier? Did he hear me?

- Didier's also here.

Next up: a meeting with the head of BP, Robert Dudley. Sechin calls him Bob.

- Maybe we talk a little bit later?

- Of course.

Dudley's back in St. Petersburg despite the over-the-top political controversy between the two nations.

Robert Dudley, CEO of BP: "I continue to believe that commerce builds bridges between nations. I don't pay attention to bad political news. There are a lot of people in Britain who want to resume our relations".

The Secretary General of OPEC and key Saudi ministers have come to Russia. An exclusive interview.

Mohammed Barkindo, Secretary General of OPEC: "Global challenges call for global solutions. And Russia is a global leader that's established its leadership which we clearly see today".

 

Khalid Al-Falih, Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia: "Very nice organization. You can see the whole world here".

Valentina Matviyenko, chair of Federation Council: "I'm proud that today, my native St. Petersburg has become the economic capital of the world where people aren't only discussing the current state of the global economy but also brainstorming serious economic and political issues".

- If you look around this room, Mr. President it might seem sanctions aren't working. Do you think they are still effective?

Vladimir Putin: "Ultimately, this policy makes no economic, political, or military sense. I've already spoken about the military aspect. The reason they are trying to contain Russia is to prevent us from developing our military technologies. Recently, we've shown them. We’ve already surpassed many our partners despite the sanction regime. So their efforts make no sense and are harmful".

The sessions of the Forum are so popular that you can see queues of investors lining up on the sidelines.

Martin Lundstedt, CEO of Volvo: "We'll continue gradually investing in Russia. We have one of our most advanced factories here".

- How are things with the power machines?

- In a struggle.

Many companies have to fight for profit. And even the leadership of the INF that's always treated Washington with deference calls out the obvious imbalance of the US sanction policy.

Christine Lagarde: "The US legal and judicial systems are very non-transparent and they are playing along with their commercial interests. That's why we have to clarify and reconsider the situation. It's long overdue. It also concerns the sanctions against the Russian natural persons. Because it's unclear whether the sanctions target them, their shares, or the companies. It's a real trust issue".

A couple of years ago, Russia was unquestionably considered the one to abuse others' trust. Now, they propose to cooperate with Russia in terms of determining a future approach.

Emmanuel Macron: "Dear Vladimir, we know you love judo. You value flexibility, strength of will, and respect your opponents who control their own power. I love football and value the same traits. So let's play a team game based on trust values we are to maintain".

Niels Hessman, CEO of Bayer: "Common sense is back in the game and it helps to cool down the situation".

Viktor Vekselberg, CEO of Renova: "They've seen their flaws. I'm not sure they've already seen the right path seeing flaws is also important".

Alisher Usmanov, founder of USM Holdings: "The history of international relations rests on bilateral compromises".

Japan also suggests looking for a compromise. The US-ally proposes large-scale cooperation and shares its dreams of the bright common future.

Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan: "Let's assume our Samurai Bloom team will stand against Russia in the finals. That's my current dream. I've become oddly optimistic. Perhaps it's just jet-lag. It appears your team, Emmanuel and Christine, will have to lose to ours. You know what they say: Dream big".

Vladimir Putin: "Esteemed Prime Minister imagined that Russia and Japan will be playing in the World Cup finals. That's a bad scenario. What if we lose? That would be a shame. I can't even imagine. But it's not about that. The thing is, the whole world is playing football using judo rules. That's a nice game we have. It's neither football nor judo. It's chaos. That's where we are going. That's what worries us".

Vyacheslav Volodin, chair of State Duma: "Practice makes perfect. And the one waving his club must understand that they risk hitting their head in the end".

On the sidelines, the guests were playing chess and discussing the economy while thinking of geopolitical games. The world's become a risky and an unpredictable place. The Russian position is clear: We are ready to start an equal dialogue but won't give up our principles.

Vladimir Putin: "If there's a choice: Either we exist as a sovereign state or they impose some restrictions we'll definitely choose the first option. The two given substances are non-comparable. Either independent existence or some charity-style investments".

For a long time, Russia's been forced to make a choice. The most shameless attempt was during the Ukrainian crisis.

www.kremlin.ru

"The NATO didn't only approach our borders. We suspect, they promised Ukraine to let it join them. After that, they are free to position radars and anti-missile systems in Ukraine. There's a line no-one's allowed cross".

The West tried to cross the line. As a result, it tore apart Ukraine which was already in a state of political crisis.

Igor Dodon, President of Moldavia: "A state like Moldova, where half of the population wants to ally with Europe and another half — with Russia. If you divide people on those who are for you and those who are against you'll end up like Ukraine".

- The Minsk Agreements are being ignored. Still, can we expect a meeting of the Normandy Four leaders and if yes, how soon?

Vladimir Putin: "The process is actually going very slow. I'm convinced that the current Ukrainian government isn't interested in resolving the conflict. There's a new political clash going on with the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections. But we have no other instrument other than the Minsk Agreements and the Normandy Format".

Macron also made it obvious that so far, there are no preconditions for a Normandy Meeting but there's a chance that the presidents of Russia and France might meet next month.

- Mr. Macron, FIFA World Cup will soon begin in Russia. Will you come to cheer for your team?

Emmanuel Macron: "Perhaps, not from the beginning but if they make it to the finals. I'm optimistic by nature so I'm going to say I'll come to Russia to cheer for our team and have an opportunity to meet President Putin again".

Putin was asked who he thinks will win the Cup: "The hosts," he replied laconically.

Pavel Zarubin, Andrey Melnikov, Dmitry Yermolenko Vladimir Ozerov, Anton Kosimovich, Alexander Feoktistov, and Pyotr Rovnov Vesti: News of the Week, St. Petersburg.