Chekov’s Gun: Top Russian Banker Confesses That War With West Seems Inevitable

- Let's all go to Davos. Mr. Kostin, you've said a lot of important things today. They sounded odd coming from a banker, a person that manages huge finances because we all know that money loves silence. Was it an outburst? Do you believe there will be a military conflict in Europe?

 

Andrey Kostin, Chairman of the Board of VTB: "Let's separate the questions. The war I meant is economic, we call it sanctions. In reality, it's a full-scale economic war aimed to exert extreme pressure on our economy, constrain its growth, decrease our standard of living, decrease our economic growth, and thus influence our internal political situation, including the elections and the future policy of our government. It's definitely a full-scale economic war and not some trade sanctions that restrict, say, the import of refrigerators. Their work is planned, systematic, and comprehensive. It involves a variety of spheres. We must admit it and generate our response.

And now I'm speaking not as a banker, but as a human being and a Russian citizen. Europe is building up arms. American ships are appearing in the Black Sea. NATO has deployed large units to the Baltics. NATO has become more active and has basically started a new arms race. It's definitely dangerous. Each spark can cause a fire. I don't think there would be a nuclear conflict but the risk of military clashes increase dramatically. It's a Chekhov's gun, especially considering the fact that people from both sides of the border have it. It can happen anywhere from air to sea. That's why we're expressing our worries. We're not concealing the fact that we oppose such course of actions. We're ready to cooperate, but they won't listen".

- Mr. Kostin, the American media, and even some similar British articles as well, tell us that bankers beg Washington not to impose the new horrible sanctions on January 29. You appear to have another opinion on that. What other tools do Americans have to exert pressure on Russia besides disconnecting us from SWIFT? What are we or you afraid of?

Andrey Kostin: "Actually, I'd say that no one knows what sanctions are going to look like. Even the editors of the major US newspapers and the US broadcasters have no information. Until we have some credible information it's useless to speculate. If someone is begging they're doing it in vain, at least I believe so. My personal position is calm. Let's wait and see. We have a set of countermeasures in case the US decides to impose some other banking restrictions. I don't want to speculate, but they've already used a vast variety of restrictions foreign loans, for instance, or capital markets. There might be additional sanctions in this sphere restricting our defense industry. Together with our colleagues from the Central Bank and some other banks we've prepared a kit of countermeasures. We're ready. We're not afraid, we're living our lives, working meeting our US and European counterparts and discussing our future cooperation. Business as usual. We'll see, I wouldn't make any speculations. Let's wait. I believe Americans don't have a definite policy. We know that Trump's administration doesn't want to impose new sanctions against Russia. But under the pressure of Congress, it might take some steps".

- Mr. Kostin, Davos is a small city and everybody is grouped up in the building because of the terrible weather We know Trump and Poroshenko are there. You might even meet them on the sidelines. What will you say to them?

Andrey Kostin: "You're right, we've had terrible snowfall on the first day that blocked all the roads. Now they're blocked because the leaders are here. I was almost late to your program because Macron arrived and the roads were blocked. Previously it was Merkel. It's so crowded here".

- So it's not just Moscow authorities that block roads?

Andrey Kostin: "Oh, they never get truly "blocked" in Moscow. It's just child's play. Here, it's a total catastrophe. You know, if I meet Trump... Fortunately for him, I haven't met him or his administration because it's pure madness right now — foreign journalists constantly ask me if I have accredited Trump or worked with him, trying to show that it was Trump who took the money from the Russian banks. Anyway, it's better for Trump not to notice me and walk past which is a likely thing for him to do because he's never seen me. Regarding Poroshenko, I don't know if he's here but..."

- OK, convey our greetings to Macron, Merkel, and Trump.

Andrey Kostin: I'll shake their hands.

- Deal. Thank you. Andrey Kostin is on a scouting mission, trying to figure out what the American sanctions will look like. They say it'll be something horrible, but don't know for sure.